In the years to come, Kazakhstan plans to sharply increase oil export to consolidate its contribution the global energy security.
Kazakhstan is one of the world’s principal hydrocarbon exporters
Unlike other well-established oil pro-duction centers, like Norway, Russia, Mexico, Great Britain, a number of the Gulf States, - Kazakhstan will reach the peak oil and gas condensate in the next decade. It means Kazakhstan is the only non-OPEC state with a great potential to increase oil production with an eye to the long-term outlook.
Thanks to the expanded production of hydrocarbons and the implemented policy on the export diversifcation, within 2000s Kazakhstan managed to sharply increase the scope of oil and gas condensate supplies to external markets.
Thus, in 2001 oil and gas condensate exports composed 32.38MT; in the last year they reached 71.2MT, which is more than two folds. With this, production increased from 40.1MT to 79.7MT, which proves a keeping forward expansion of hydrocarbons export against production.
In the current year, export of oil and gas condensate may stand at 72MT with the production rate of 81-81.5MT. The dynamics of the
first half of 2011 affrms these expectations: January-June oil export scopes increased by 13.1% compared to the corresponding period of the last year.
Kazakhstan has a number of trade partners on oil and gas condensate supplies, which comes under notice.
In particular, last year Kazakhstan supplied oil to 33 world states, the largest among them were Italy (15.94MT), China (9.73MT), France (7.32MT) and Netherlands (6.99MT). This shows that independent Kazakhstan succeeded in the diversifcation of oil supplies considering a leading role of the European consumers in the total scope of the exported oil.
Hydrocarbons export: planned growth
The perspectives for the export growth of the Kazakhstani hydrocarbons seem to be stable. Notably, in compliance with the strategic plan of the Ministry of Oil and Gas of RK for 2011-2015, the scope of oil export in 2015 will reach up to 84MT, which is 13MT higher than the last year level. The calculations of the Ministry of Oil and Gas of RK also speak for the growth of the oil export scopes
up to 110MT as a minimum in 2020 with the production rate of 132.1MT, out of which 33.7MT belong to JSC NC KazMunayGas. The forecasts reviewed have suffcient grounds, including a number of oil production projects to be introduced and oil expansion thru the implemented projects, which will bring state oil export potential to a sig-nifcant increase.
First of all, it mentions the development of the world’s largest oil and gas deposit, Kashagan, located on the north-east Caspian shelf. Production of the deposit is planned for the next year end: only in 2015 the hydrocarbons production will reach 14.9MT and 65.23MT in 2020.
Expectations are prominent in regard to the Tengiz capacity expansion project, valued at 15-20B dollars, which will allow for the oil production increase from 25.9MT to 36MT by 2016.
Also, by 2020 the state export potential will be added with the production commenced in a row of the Caspian shelf deposits. Particularly, by 2020, the annual production of 987KT of oil is planned from Khazar, 675KT – from Kalamkas Sea, 416KT – from Auezov, 816KT – from Rakushechnoye sea, 453KT – from N block. It is worth to note, that a bigger part of this oil will be exported to Europe, frst of all.
Export Capacity Expansion
In this context, it is notable that Kazakhstan has taken the course to expand the export capacities purposed at the compliance with the growth dynamics of supplies from the Kazakhstani deposits to the external markets. As of today, the oil transport system of Kazakhstan complies with the transportation requirements both in terms of the carrying capacity and export direc-tions.
The oil companies operating in the Republic have all hydrocarbon export directions at their availability.
The frst among them are the oil pipelines going via Russia: the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and Atyrau-Samara; the second are the transcaspian overseas trans-portation via Aktau port and further export via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline; the third is transportation to China via Atasu-Alashankou oil pipeline, which was commissioned in 2005.
Total export capacity of the existing export pipelines makes up to approximately 58MT per annum, and the biggest among them is CPC built in 2001 that carried 28.4MT of Kazakh oil in 2010.
Bearing in mind a zero tolerance to the def-cit of export capacities, which are quite real according production increase forecasts, Kazakhstan commenced the implementation of the projects to provide a signifcant increase of the carrying capacity of the existing oil transportation systems in the next few years.
First of all, commencement of the construction and installation works in the current July purposed at CPC expansion, where Ka
zakhstan represents one of the main shareholders (20.75%).
Despite of delays related to the lengthy co-ordination of the project terms between Kazakhstan and Russia, the implementation of the CPC expansion project with the value of $5.4B will promote the increase of the total pipeline capacity up to 67MT by the frst quarter 2015; herewith the Kazakhstan share will grow to 52.2MT per annum. The scope of Kazakh oil export via Atyrau-Samara in the European direction is sup-posed to be kept at 15MT until 2020. Kazakhstan intends to activate the export of oil raw to China, where demands for hydro-carbons are rapidly growing. In 2011 only, the carrying capacity of Atasu-Alashankou pipeline supplying Kazakh oil to China increased from 10MT to 12MT. In addition, the two states signed the agreements on the pipeline expansion to 20MT, which despite of all is less than the European direction. However, the Chinese export direction will remain as one of the principal directions for Kazakhstan during the next decade.
Besides, Kazakhstan is planning to increase oil export via Aktau port to the Caspian Sea up to 12MT against 9MT of the current year, and rail road export – up to 11MT against 7.4MT accordingly.